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Britisk tenketank: – Brexit et hardt slag for TTIP-forhandlingene

20. juli 2016

Da de britiske velgerne stemte for brexit lagde de også store problemer for dem som prøver å tvinge gjennom den såkalte TTIP-avtalen. Dette er oppfatninga til den britiske tenketanken Chatham House.

Chatham House, eller egentlig Royal Institute of International Affairs, er så nær du kan komme kjerna i den britiske eliten. Den har solide røtter i den britiske kolonialismen og er britenes parallell til USAs Council on Foreign Relations. Deres sponsorer og partnere er ganske enkelt «the 0,01% community». Når de uttaler seg er det ganske enkelt Makta som snakker. De skriver om vanskene for TTIP-avtalen etter brexit:

The result of the UK’s EU referendum will blow a strong wind into the face of TTIP negotiators on three fronts. First, the Brexit vote will delay the TTIP talks as EU officials will focus their attention and political capital on the future UK-EU relationship. Once the UK government triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, both sides have two years to sort out the separation proceedings. Only after it has become clear what Britain’s relationship with the EU will look like will the European side stop navel-gazing. The TTIP negotiations will likely continue in the meantime, but will be put on the back-burner.

Second, any progress on TTIP will require clarity on what both sides are bringing to the negotiating table. But until the final nature of the UK-EU relationship is known, it will be difficult for the American side to assess exactly how valuable the access to the remaining EU market is. This raises the question of whether American negotiators will put forth their best offers if they don’t know what benefits they will obtain for making concessions.

Third, with Britain’s vote to leave the EU, TTIP has just lost one of its greatest cheerleaders. French and German officials are increasingly expressing concerns about TTIP. Within three days of the Brexit vote, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls dismissed the possibility of a US-EU trade deal, stating TTIP was against ‘EU interests’. In addition, 59 per cent of Germans oppose TTIP – up from 51 per cent – according to the most recent Eurobarometer survey. Britain’s voice for further trade liberalization will be sorely missed by American negotiators eager to strike a deal.

Men Chatham House håper jo at den milliardærklassen de representerer vil lykkes med TTIP til slutt. De håper at det bare dreier seg om en utsettelse. Det de ikke forsøker å analysere er hva slags motstand som kan bygge seg opp i den pustepausen som brexit har gitt. Og for oss som ønsker å nedkjempe denne katastrofale avtalen gjelder det å bruke denne galgenfristen godt.