ILO says world heading for a new and deeper jobs recession

1. november 2011

World of Work Report 2011- ILO says world heading for a new and deeper jobs recession, warns of more social unrest

In a grim analysis issued on the eve of the G20 leaders summit, the International Labour Organization (ILO) says the global economy is on the verge of a new and deeper jobs recession that will further delay the global economic recovery and may ignite more social unrest in scores of countries.

The report cites three reasons why the ongoing economic slowdown may have a particularly strong impact on the employment panorama: first, compared to the start of the crisis, enterprises are now in a weaker position to retain workers; second, as pressure to adopt fiscal austerity measures mount, governments are less inclined to maintain or adopt new job- and income-support programmes; and third, countries are left to act in isolation due to lack of international policy coordination.

The report’s other main findings include:

Approximately 80 million net new jobs will be needed over the next two years to re-attain pre-crisis employment rates (27 million in advanced economies and the remainder in emerging and developing countries).
Out of 118 countries with available data, 69 countries show an increase in the percentage of people reporting a worsening of living standards in 2010 compared to 2006.
Respondents in half of 99 countries surveyed say they do not have confidence in their national governments.
In 2010, more than 50 per cent of people in developed countries report being dissatisfied with the availability of decent jobs (in countries such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain, more than 70 per cent of survey respondents reported dissatisfaction).
The share of profit in GDP increased in 83 per cent of the countries analyzed between 2000 and 2009. Productive investment, however, stagnated globally during the same period.
In advanced countries, the growth in corporate profits among non-financial firms was translated into a substantial increase in dividend payouts (from 29 per cent of profits in 2000 to 36 per cent in 2009) and financial investment (from 81.2 per cent of GDP in 1995 to 132.2 per cent in 2007). The crisis reversed slightly these trends, which resumed in 2010.
Food price volatility doubled during the period 2006-2010 relative to the preceding five years, affecting decent work prospects in developing countries. Financial investors benefit more from price volatility than food producers, especially small ones.

Et sammendrag av rapporten finnes her.

Dette bekrefter den analysen jeg er kommet fram til i Sammenbruddet, men jeg gjør i tillegg en del ting som ILO ikke gjør. Jeg ser på de økologiske krisene i tillegg til den økonomiske krisa, og jeg ser på rivaliseringa mellom stormaktene. Det er når alt dette ses i sammenheng at det virkelige dramaet blir synlig.

Se også Regnestykket som ikke går opp