Den ukrainske regjeringa har brutt Minsk-2-avtalen ved å kreve at opprørerne overgir seg før det kommer på tale med politiske reformer. Dette er et krav opprørerne ikke kan bøye seg for, og dermed vil kampene ta til igjen. Dette vil så bli brukt av krigspartiet i USA og haukene i NATO til å beskylde Russland for brudd på våpenhvilen. Og så vil USA, Storbritannia og andre «villige» trappe opp utplasseringa av tropper og våpen i Ukraina og bringe verden farlig nær en kjernefysisk krig. Robert Parry skriver om dette:
By adding a poison pill to legislation implementing the latest Minsk agreement, the Ukrainian government has effectively guaranteed a resumption of the civil war, which U.S. hardliners and the mainstream U.S. media will no doubt blame on ethnic Russian rebels and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The U.S. media has focused on the so-called Minsk-2 agreement’s cease-fire component, first claiming it was being sabotaged by the rebels and Russia but now acknowledging that it is shaky but relatively successful. But the larger point of Minsk-2 was that it would provide for a political settlement of the civil war by arranging talks between Kiev and authorities in the east that would lead to giving those areas extensive self-rule by the end of 2015.
But the implementing law that emerged this week from the Ukrainian parliament in Kiev inserted a clause requiring the rebels to first surrender to the Ukrainian government and then letting Kiev organize elections before a federalized structure is determined.
The Minsk-2 agreement had called for dialogue with the representatives of these territories en route to elections and establishment of broad autonomy for the region, but Kiev’s curveball was to refuse any talks with rebel leaders and insist on establishing control over these territories before the process can move forward, in effect requiring a rebel capitulation.
Kravet om underkastelse før politiske reformer legger også press både på Barack Obama og Angela Merkel.
Kiev’s maneuver – reflecting the bellicose position of neocon Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and other U.S. hardliners – puts pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande to either get Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko to return to the original understanding of Minsk-2 or watch the fighting resume leading to a potential showdown between nuclear-armed Russia and the United States on Russia’s border.
The surrender-first-negotiate-later stipulation also raises questions about the strength of Merkel and President Barack Obama to overcome resistance from America’s powerful neoconservatives who have exploited the Ukraine crisis to isolate Russia and drive a wedge between Obama and Putin. The two leaders had cooperated to reduce tensions with Syria and Iran in 2013 when the neocons were hoping for more “regime change.”
Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten melder at USA skal utplassere Patriot-raketter i Polen i kort avstand fra Russlands baser i Kaliningrad. BBC melder at britiske militære har startet med å trene ukrainske styrker.
Jeg skrev om denne faren i artikkelen Tordenskyer over 2015.